Post-Halving Security Budget

Bitcoin System

Moderate

Protocol & Architecture

Confidence Score

69%

Last updated 26 days ago

Current Thesis

Bitcoin's post-2024 halving security budget (miner rewards + fees) is 60% lower than pre-halving. This creates long-term risk if Bitcoin L2 volumes don't provide sufficient fee revenue. Arch benefits from this trend: as Bitcoin becomes a 'store of value,' capital markets infrastructure (Arch) captures trading/lending revenue that miners can't.

Evolution of Belief

Apr 20, 2024

Bitcoin halving will materially impact miner economics.

Reason: Pre-halving analysis

Sep 1, 2025

Post-halving security budget is sustainable IF layer 2 fee revenue scales

Reason: Post-halving miner revenue data

Key Data Inputs

Miner Daily Revenue (post-halving)

Block rewards + fees

$28.3M

Trend: Up

% from Fees

Percentage of revenue from transaction fees

15%

Trend: Up

Bitcoin Hashrate

Network security metric

680 EH/s

Trend: Up

Linked Research Nodes

depends on

Bitcoin Fee Market Dynamics

Open Questions

•Will Bitcoin fee revenue grow fast enough to sustain security budget?
•What's the critical fee level needed for long-term security?

Downstream Decisions

Strategy

Medium Impact

Bitcoin security through layer 2 fee revenue is structural advantage for Arch; long-term moat

Change Log

26 days ago

Updated miner economics with Q1 2026 halving data

Protocol & Architecture Researcher